DECISION MAKING ESSENTIALS: You Always Wanted To Know: Publisher: Vibrant Publishers, USA; Author: Mark Koscinski, Pp.: 188, Price: Rs. 499/= (Paperback edition), Language: English, First Edition: Jan 2021, ISBN-10: 1-63651-002-7, ISBN-13: 978-1-63651-002-6, (Ebook and Hardback editions are also available)
While running any
organization, certain decisions have to be taken at different times, depending
on the prevailing and/or expected situations, by the person at the helm of
affairs and also at different levels of the organization or by a group of
persons like in a committee. These decisions could be of small, minor, major or
strategic nature. Every leader, manager and person would like to possess the
ability to think & take quick and correct decisions in the field of his
responsibility. But in practical situations, normally we may have some options
and therefore we, as a leader, have to consider the pros and cons of the
options and then arrive at a final decision. These decisions may be taken based
on the gut feeling of the top management or on the basis of mathematical
calculations using certain theories. Generally speaking, the decisions based on
mathematical calculations are expected to result in better decisions. For this
purpose, the leader should have some basic knowledge of the methods of Decision
making. The problems at different times are expected to be different and they
may accordingly need different methods of handling and resolution. For the
mangers to take the right decisions, they must first of all learn, all the
“essentials”, and then practise them in their organization. Hence there is a
necessity of such a book to help in Decision making appropriately. If
appropriate decisions are taken by the management, at different times,
considering all possible aspects, the organization will be successful &
profitable and will thus project an excellent image in the Corporate world.
This book is one under
Self-Learning Management Series of the publisher. After providing of the
initial information by the publishers, views of six experts, about the author
and Preface, the book presents systematically organized Table of Contents.
There are in all, eleven Chapters in the book, covering Introduction to
Decision Making, Cognitive Processes and their Limitations, Gathering Data: How
much is enough, Group Mechanics, Scenario Planning and Prediction Markets,
Heuristic and Programmed Decisions, Probability and Base rate neglect, The
SMART method, EBA and Even Swaps, Sensitivity analysis, Negotiating and selling
the Final decision. Towards the end of the book, Glossary containing 154 terms
with their explanations and Bibliography, having 17 references have been
provided. After a study of this book, one is expected to understand the
essentials of Decision making in an organization.
Chapter 1 of the book
discusses about effect of poor data, poor decision model, faulty recommendations
and unsound decisions. The author talks about risk, uncertainty, objectives and
analysis before taking a decision. A decision model for simple problems is
needed, data collected and analyzed to arrive at a decision. Complex problems
are generally dealt by a group of persons and not by an individual. This is the
topic in Chapter 4. Consultations may be formal or informal. A committee may be
formed. Techniques like Brainstorming may be used. Chapter 7 discusses about
use of Probability to analyze risks, since every decision taken involves
certain risks. We all would like to have absolute certainty about our
decisions, but it is very difficult. Hence we have to use the Theory of
Probability and thereby assess the probability of occurrence of the event.
Decision Tree gives graphical representation of the probability of occurrences
of the outcomes. The author discusses other Statistical parameters also.
Sensitivity Analysis has been discussed in Chapter 10. This enables us to know
the effect of changes in some data or assumptions on our decision. The
decisions are tested before implementing them, through some techniques
mentioned. Information about the steps, after Decision analysis and conclusion
are given in Chapter 11. Rules for discussing and negotiating with the
stakeholders, problems of asymmetric information, use of Game theory and
selling the decision etc. are also covered in this Chapter.
The book offers a sound
base for obtaining advanced knowledge in each topic of Decision Making and for
application in actual profession. It is a powerful guide and gives an overview
of the role and importance of Decision making in an organization. It explains
the concepts of Decision making methods for use in practical situations. With easy
to understand language and simple approach to the topics, it is pleasing for
readers to read and understand. Brief details of the book have been provided on
the back cover page. Printing is good and appears to be free of errors. The quality
of paper used for the book is very good. Amongst the other good points of the
book are providing, at the beginning of each Chapter, what the readers are
expected to discuss and explore in that particular Chapter, providing Chapter
summary & Discussion questions, at the end of each Chapter. The number of Discussion
questions, Chapter wise, varies from 2 to 5 with the total number of questions
in the book being 33. Questions are given for critical areas and the readers
are motivated to seek their solutions on their own and in case of difficulty
get the solutions downloaded from a website, whose link has been provided. In
Chapter 7, after the Discussion questions, additional 7 questions have been
provided as “Test your knowledge”. For the Discussion questions at the end of
Chapter 7, hints have also been given for the 3 questions given. In all, the book has 11 figures and 20 tables.
Also there are 60 footnotes in the book, which are spread over all the Chapters.
Number of pages in the Chapters; vary from 7 to 32, and are as per the need of
the topic. The Cover design is simple, but colourful and pleasant. The book
provides accurate relevant information/explanation/description on the various
topics. For the prospective or upcoming Decision Making Managers, there is a
lot to learn from the book, to get prepared to take appropriate decisions for
better results, without stress. It is an excellent book in the field of
Decision Making for those in the leadership roles, for the trainees, newcomers
and self-learners interested in seeking a career in management, trainers,
working Management professionals. Considering in an overall way, this book is considered
very helpful for Decision making in life, including for the tough decisions. It
is an essential read.
--------Reviewer:vijaiksharma